- Title
- Probabilistic modelling of structural and safety hazard risks for monolithic glazing subject to explosive blast loads
- Creator
- Netherton, Michael David
- Relation
- University of Newcastle Research Higher Degree Thesis
- Resource Type
- thesis
- Date
- 2013
- Description
- Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
- Description
- Explosions within urban areas can inflict great damage to building envelopes and facades, particularly glazed areas, following which, fragments of broken glass can then cause damage to building interiors and pose significant safety hazards to occupants. The aim of this thesis is to develop a new probabilistic framework that can be used to quantify the risks of glass damage and glazing safety hazards associated with explosive blast loads; indeed, the framework has utility for all manner of blast-load/structural-response scenarios. In any blast-load scenario there is considerable uncertainty and variability associated with many parameters, such as: explosive mass, stand-off, net equivalent quantity, explosive shape, confinement, the inherent variability of a blast wave, errors in predicting blast-load parameters, and so forth. The new framework uses well-accepted methods of structural reliability and probability theory to undertake assessments of two topical blast load scenarios: (i) an aerially delivered military weapon (where collateral damage risks are paramount), and (ii) a terrorist style vehicle borne improved explosive device (where the risk of any safety hazard is of interest). A new probabilistic blast load model propagates the uncertainty and variability through the computations to reveal estimates of probable blast-load values, such as: pressure, impulse and the duration time of a blast wave’s first positive pulse. These probabilistically derived values are compared against classical (deterministically calculated) blast-load predictions with a view to assess their degree of conservatism (or otherwise).The two blast load scenarios are then used within a new probabilistic glazing-response model that considers a typical 20-story urban structure containing normal facade glazing. The glazing system (both pre and post fracture) also contains uncertainty and variability in items such as: glass dimensions, the strength of glass, Poisson’s ratio, Young’s Modulus, the drag coefficients of different (and randomly sized/shaped) glass fragments, and so forth. Values of uncertainty and variability are again propagated through the calculations to reveal estimates of the risk of glazing failure and the risk of glazing safety hazards to building occupants. Different glazing options are considered (in a number of case studies) where risk, reliability and cost-benefit analyses allows comparisons to be made between the relative effectiveness of security measures, weapon selection, delivery method or other mitigation measures. The intent for the framework presented in this thesis is that it represents a rational approach to predicting blast damage risks which can then be used: (a) As a decision support tool to mitigate damage (risk-cost-benefit analysis), (b) By emergency services to predict the extent and likelihood of damage and casualty levels in contingency planning and emergency response simulations, (c) For collateral damage estimation for military planners (i.e., minimise risk of collateral damage when selecting military ordinance), and (d) In forensics to back-calculate charge mass based on the extent of observed damage and a known stand-off distance.
- Subject
- probabalistic risk assessment; structural reliability; glazing; safety hazards; security risks; explosive blast load models; cost benefit analysis; probability; risk; blast; windows
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/938509
- Identifier
- uon:12627
- Rights
- Copyright 2013 Michael David Netherton
- Language
- eng
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| View Details Download | ATTACHMENT02 | Thesis | 7 MB | Adobe Acrobat PDF | View Details Download |